The Rio games start (forgetting the opening ceremony guff) on Saturday 6th August.
TV Coverage – UK times daily are around 12:30 until 04:00. Sadly for those who are early-to-bed types, or who have to get up for work, much of the “highlight” events will take place around 2 or 3 am. Auntie Beeb are promising to show stuff again at breakfast time, but
a) It’s not live
b) Still not much good if you’re at work.
Bed at 4am, up at 10am seems the plan.
Medals – UK Sport have set their targets as 47-79 medals. They provide a lower and upper target. They don’t specify targets for colour of medal.
http://www.uksport.gov.uk/news/2016/07/14/medal-target-announcement
Remembering our London haul was 65 medals
Recent medal tallies (since lottery funding was made available to athletes) are
| Year | Gold | Silver | Bronze |
| 2012 | 29 | 17 | 19 |
| 2008 | 19 | 13 | 15 |
| 2004 | 9 | 9 | 12 |
| 2000 | 11 | 10 | 7 |
Looking at the bookies, they are offering over / under handicaps for number of golds and number of total medals.
Currently they look to be erring on the lower side of the medal range, with the total medal handicaps being set in the early to mid 50s. Interesting, bearing in mind that Beijing 2008 with 47 medals was our most successful overseas games ever.
There’s the view that host nations “struggle” the following Olympiad. Is that the case in recent times?
| Host Nation Medals | Next Games Medals | |
| USA | 101 | 93 |
| AUS | 58 | 50 |
| GRE | 16 | 4 |
| CHN | 100 | 88 |
Hardly a “struggle”, except for Greece, but they haven’t been a medal-winning powerhouse in recent times. Undoubtedly being host is an advantage from a medal-winning point of view, but is the next games a disaster?
| Previous Games Gold | Host Nation Gold | Next Games Gold | |
| KOR | 6 | 12 | 12 |
| SPA | 1 | 13 | 5 |
| USA | 37 | 44 | 37 |
| AUS | 9 | 16 | 17 |
| GRE | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| CHN | 32 | 51 | 38 |
| GBR | 19 | 29 | ?? |
Team GB Gold medals handicap marks with the bookies are around the 18-19 mark.
So, where are the golds coming from? In the following sport-by-sport preview, I’m looking to highlight the realistic possibilities.
Athletics (Target 7-9 medals)
Very much a case of the 2012 heroes being to the fore again when it comes to gold medal prospects.
Mo Farah must be favoured for 2 medals, probably gold. Repeating is not unheard of, though its more common in the 10K. Only Lasse Viren has succesfully defended an Olympic 5000m title. Farah has a 3000 metre British record recently, evidence he’s in shape.
Jess Ennis should medal. The colour is so hard to predict. The Heptathlon for me will be the highlight of the games. It looks neck and neck between her and Brianne Theisen-Eaton (who I’ve backed at an overpriced 3-1). Throw Katarina Johnson-Thompson into the mix as well and it should be a cracker.
Greg Rutherford is a live contender in the long jump, cos there still isn’t a commanding figure in terms of distances in that event.
Difficult to identify anyone else as a good prospect for gold. Some minor medal contenders, more especially amongst the women. There are going to be people such as Dina Asher-Smith and Laura Muir who are well worth watching.
I’ll be doing a fuller track and field preview towards the end of the week
Cycling (target 8-10 medals)
Gold much more thin on the ground than in London (had to be really). There’s no-one I’d consider nailed on for gold. No-one I’d part with money for at this stage.
Laura Trott in the omnium, Men’s team pursuit, Jason Kenny in the sprint and Chris Froome in the time trial. All have realistic challenges to them though.
No fancy for Cavendish in the Omnium, he’d be doing well to medal.
No fancy for Armitstead in the Women’s Road Race. Even more so after the drug stuff this week.
No fancy for the Womens Team Pursuit, the USA will beat them.
Rowing (Target 6-8 medals)
Same applies as cycling really. Problems within the camp after bullying accusations levelled at the coaches.
Heather Stanning and Helen Glover WILL repeat their 2012 success (barring injury/ illness)
Mens Coxless Four look set to continue GB dominance in that event
A number of minor medals, but those two are the ones I’d nail my colours to the mast for.
Swimming (Target 3-5 medals)
GB had best ever World Championships in 2015 with 7 golds, but the bad news is that 3 of those golds came in non-olympic events.
Adam Peaty is the superstar. He will win the 100m breaststroke. Quite possibly the first GB gold, dependent on how the cycling road races go. Early hours of Monday 8th for that one.
Britain don’t win many swimming golds, so he’s the only one I’d identify as a winner
Diving (Target 1-2 medals)
Difficult to predict any winners in the diving, the Chinese dominate.
Equestrian (Target 2-4 medals)
It’s a question of beating the Germans in Equestrian events. Medals will come, will they be gold?
Dressage looks like the main success source, Charlotte Dujardin is a serious gold contender, though the team are less fancied than in 2012.
Tennis (Target 1-2 medals)
Shouldn’t be anywhere near the Olympics, but I guess after nearly 30 years since reintroduction, it’s going nowhere soon.
Murray in the singles, Murray brothers in the doubles, Konta in the womens.
No golds. I reckon Djokovic will be motivated to win gold after an early exit at Wimbledon.
How much Murray will be motivated here with the US open looming is open to question, but he’s got a chance with his brother, and the Bryans have not entered. Might depend how deep he goes in the singles. Outside chance of a win.
Sailing (target 3-6 medals)
So often one of the big successes, London 2012 was actually quite poor bearing in mind it was home turf, with only Ben Ainslie’s gold.
Ainslie’s successor in the Finn class, Giles Scott, heavy favourite to win, been unbeaten for a while.
Hannah Mills & Saskia Clark favourites to follow up their London medal with a 2016 gold in the Women’s 470.
Bryony Shaw favourite in the windsurfing, but not a heavy favourite.
Triathlon (target 1-2 medals)
Alistair Brownlee big chance of winning again. Hasn’t been without his problems in the last few years, but he won in June and again in July, so is in shape.
Difficult to see a way to victory in the women’s, USA Gwen Jorgensen dominant. Minor medals likely.
Boxing (Target 3-5 medals)
Nicola Adams is GB best gold hope.
The men’s boxing has done away with headguards, leading to the increased likelihood of cuts, and boxers being not allowed to fight because of it. Makes prediction a lot harder. Big rumours of corruption amongst officials too.
Lots of positive things being said about Joe Joyce (world ranked 3) at SuperHeavyweight.
Only other name being mentioned is Muhammad Ali at lightweight (ranked 7 in world), but that’s probably more due to his namesake. From the Amir Khan stable though.
Gymnastics (Target 3-5 Medals)
Gold in the pommel horse. Whether that is Max Whitlock or (less likely) Louis Smith remains to be seen.
Minor medals elsewhere, Whitlock should be worth following in the Men’s all-around competition.
Canoeing (Target 3-5 medals)
David Florence is bookies’ joint favourite in the C1, and he was silver-medallist in2012 in the C2 with partner Richard Hounslow. They’re competing again.
In the canoe sprint, Liam Heath represents best chance, but event is dominated by Eastern Europe.
Taekwondo (Target 1-3 medals)
Jade Jones is world ranked 1 in her category.
Bianca Walkden ranked 3 in hers.
Interestingly, Aaron Cook (controversially overlooked for selection in2012 in favour of eventual bronze medallist Lutalo Mohammed) will compete against Mohammed for Moldova & is ranked 2 to Mohammed’s 5.
Hockey (Target 1-2 medals)
Both men’s and women’s teams are live medal contenders. The (England) women became European Champions last year, beating World and Olympic champions Netherlands in a penalty shootout. You’d hope that a GB team would be stronger than England, unless politics and quotas play a part in selection.
Difficult to predict a win for either though.
Golf (Target 1-2 medals)
Shouldn’t be anywhere near the Olympics. High profile withdrawals have made Justin Rose’s chances of a win more likely. Plenty of big names still around though.
Women’s golf is dominated by Korea & USA and all of the big names are there. Difficult to see any GB success.
Rugby 7s (Target 0-1 medals)
England women are 15 a side world champs, so the GB team could be a live threat, but Australia and NZ top ranked, GB ranked 4th.
GB men ranked 4th too. The target indicates that medals are not expected, but one would be a nice surprise.
Modern Pentathlon (Target 1-2 medals)
Events that take place as the finale to the Olympic programme .We have a good record in the women’s. Samantha Murray won silver in2012, but is not ranked in the top20.
James Cooke is world ranked 1 in the mens, so is a live contender.
Judo (Target 0-1 medals)
Included because we won medals in 2012.
We don’t win judo golds. GB highest ranked fighter in any category is 8th. Medals unlikely as the target shows.
Shooting (Target 0-1 medals)
Included because we won medals in 2012.
Amber Hill might have an outside chance of a medal in the women’s skeet.
In total there are 24 events (the ones highlighted in bold italics) where I believe we have genuine gold medal chances. Of course they won’t all win, but the success rate there will determine how close GB get to that 18 gold prediction.
The other sports in which GB compete (Archery, Badminton, Fencing, Table Tennis, Weighlifting) have no realistic medal expectations.
No GB representation in Basketball, Beach Volleyball, Football, Handball, Volleyball, Water Polo or Wrestling.
graemesmith1968 